UBS On-Air: Market Moves

We recap the week that was, including today’s release of the April employment report, Wednesday’s Fed statement and press conference, along with preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our conversation covers recent developments and potential executive action surrounding the US-Mexico border, Secretary of State Blinken’s Middle East regional tour, and a motion to vacate House Speaker Mike Johnson. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US employment report Friday looms. Around 119,000 companies will be asked about their employees. Around 67,000 companies will not bother to reply. Markets will obsess about the data anyway. The expectation is for slower job creation (as measured by payrolls), with a stable monthly change in average earnings (which are not the same thing as wages).

Our series of emerging markets conversations continues as we expand on CIO’s view on emerging market debt, along with risks and positioning considerations to be mindful of. Featured is Donald McLauchlan, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele, and colleagues around the world discuss inflation expectations, the outlook and implications of the situation in the Middle East, and scenarios for investors.

The Federal Reserve announced a slower pace of shrinking its balance sheet. Context is important here—quantitative policy is about the balance between the supply of and demand for liquidity. Demand for liquidity was slowing significantly after the pandemic, requiring the Fed to shrink its balance sheet to match. Liquidity demand is now slowing less, so the Fed’s balance sheet can shrink more slowly.

A large part of the world is not working today, in celebration of workers. But the old order is changing—and increasingly we may need to celebrate profits. One of the features of the pandemic was an explosion in small business creation. More people have side hustles: Selling on eBay; renting on AirBnB; writing economic books that are widely available for purchase. Self-employment and contract work have increased. The income from these endeavours is often classified as profits.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

Our conversation outlines some trending tax considerations and developments associated with the muni market. We also spend time reviewing muni-related portfolio themes, along with a review of recent muni market performance drivers. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Eurozone April inflation data generates less of the tense excitement that a US inflation release can produce. The regional data we have already had suggests a modest decline in the headline consumer price inflation rate. Overall, Eurozone inflation has fallen from 10.6% to essentially an on-target number within a year and a half—without an unemployment shock. This suggests that inflation is neither sticky, nor conventionally cyclical.

To begin the week, Jason outlines the current market outlook scenarios of the UBS Chief Investment Office, along with recommendations when it comes to asset allocation. We also recap market activity throughout the month of April and touch on renewed concerns over ‘stagflation’. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

Preliminary consumer price inflation numbers for April are due from Germany and Spain. There are no sizeable base effects or peculiarities in these numbers. The expectation for both counties is an inflation rate similar to March—although the consensus range is moderately wide, and unwinding profit-led inflation is difficult to forecast.

Dan rejoins the podcast to provide his near-to-medium term outlook for the US economy, monetary policy, and equity markets. We also discuss where Dan is finding opportunity within equities, as well as the risks to be mindful of as we approach 2H24. Featured is Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As we close out another week (and the month of April), Frank and Barry recap fixed income performance, as well as this week’s notable market moving events, notably the Q1 GDP print. We also preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists for the Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

On this week’s episode, Burkhard reflects on April’s market performance and whether potential adjustments to the timing of Fed rate cuts could impact the prospects for growth. We also touch on how investors should consider positioning for rising geopolitical risk, and on the lighter side, share some reading and movie tips for a Spring weekend!

This week we examine what national polling in currently pointing to for the race for the White House, including takeaways from this week’s Pennsylvania primary. Shane also outlines some upcoming agenda items and focuses for Congress, and shares his expectations for Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets exhibited a naïve belief in the accuracy of economic data yesterday. US first quarter GDP will probably be revised stronger, and hinted at future consumer strength. The data does put more focus on today’s personal spending figures—and in particular the personal consumer expenditure deflators.

Jason and Paul rejoin the podcast in-studio to discuss the second edition of the new CEO Briefing Book quarterly series. We dive into how the macroeconomic environment, the landscape for corporate transactions, and geopolitics have all evolved thus far in 2024, and in turn what that means for corporate operating environments and decision making. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US releases its first guess at first quarter GDP (a generally accurate number should be available sometime around 2029 or 2030). The rapid pace of structural change means that increasing amounts of economic activity are likely being missed in this sort of data. Overall, there should be some signs of a slowdown, but middle-income consumers will still provide resilience.