5 in 5 with ANZ

The Bank of England holds and says it will cut rates within a month or two. Malaysia’s central bank is more upbeat about growth as it holds. China’s exports rebound, and in the Philippines, soft consumer spending drags on GDP growth. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman looks at the uncertainties shrouding New Zealand’s housing market right now, and how developments in Auckland might affect the rest of the country. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Boston Fed President says rates are likely to be held for longer. The Bank of Japan’s governor says big yen moves are undesirable. Taiwan’s exports are weaker than expected. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur recalibrates when Asian central banks might be able to cut, given changing expectations about when and how much the Fed cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US rate cut optimism is growing with soft US labour market data. The RBA was less hawkish than expected, but won’t rule anything in or out. Australian consumers are really feeling the pinch. Inflation stays on target in Taiwan and the Philippines. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data is underpinning global commodity prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rise as traders find comfort in Fed rate cut hopes; All eyes on how hawkish the RBA will turn today; Indonesia’s GDP is supported by election spending; and holiday travel data shows Chinese consumers may be coming out of their shells. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses the outlook for the US dollar and Treasuries if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential election in November. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth was weaker than expected, so US bonds and stocks rallied. US Treasury yields and the US dollar fell. The RBA is expected to hold hawkishly tomorrow. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at what a Donald Trump re-election could mean for the US-China bilateral relationship. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US bond yields fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to rule out rate hikes. Japanese authorities may have intervened again to hold up the yen. South Korean and Indonesian inflation eases. Australia’s record imports suggest demand is holding up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby looks at how global economic developments, and the weather, are affecting demand for New Zealand’s key primary exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US Federal Reserve has kept rates on hold and signaled a lack of progress towards its 2% inflation goal in recent months. New Zealand’s labour market weakens, but wage growth is still high. The copper price has been on a roll in 2024. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty looks at how non-China Asia exports have been supported this year by strong US demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stronger US wage data adds to fears rates will be on hold for longer. Core inflation progress in Europe supports a June cut by the ECB. China’s factory output rises. Weak Australian retail sales cause a rethink on the RBA’s rate track. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Economist Miles Workman looks closely at why consumers in New Zealand are so down in the dumps. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The yen bounces hard after slumping through 160. Some think Japan’s authorities intervened, but there’s no confirmation. ANZ Research has changed its expectation for Fed rate cuts this year to two 25 basis point cuts from four. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at how the RBA might react if Australia’s stage 3 tax cuts improve consumer confidence, which is now near 1990s-recession level lows. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar has spiked up over 158 yen. Traders are on high alert for intervention by Japanese authorities. Market expectations for rate cuts by the Fed and RBA keep being pushed out. New Zealand consumer confidence falls again In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at why Australian consumer confidence is at 1990s-style recession-level lows and when it might pick up. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose after US growth and inflation data was worse than expected. Australia’s strong CPI could shift the RBA’s rate cut track out. Indonesia hikes rates to bolster its currency and South Korea’s GDP beats forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur looks at what central banks across Asia face in terms of monetary policy and their currencies if the US Fed delays rate cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global PMIs offer hope for an earlier US rate cut, an ECB cut in June, and an easing by the Bank of England in August. Australian inflation is set to keep easing. Currency volatility means a rate hike is not off the table in Indonesia. In part two of our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga offers some pragmatic suggestions for improving housing affordability in Australia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks are on the rise, while gold and oil prices fell overnight on easing tensions in the Middle East. Chinese authorities move to boost Hong Kong’s stock market. The copper price is on a tear. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes a closer look at Australia’s worsening housing affordability, and why boosting housing supply may not be enough on its own. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets start the week nervously eyeing the Middle East and key US data later this week. Asian currencies are jittery near record lows against a rampant USD. The RBA will hope for lower inflation data in Australia on Wednesday In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why silver is finally jumping on gold’s fast-rising coat-tails. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US bond yields rise again on strong factory data. Australian unemployment rises, but firms still expect labour market tightness. Next week’s CPI could be crucial for the RBA. Japan’s inflation rate is expected to slow. but don’t expect the BoJ to budge. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains what is driving a surge in capital investment in India, and whether it can continue to drive GDP growth. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Sticky UK inflation has dashed mid-year rate cut hopes. Strong domestic inflation in New Zealand is a concern for the central bank, but the ECB looks on track to start rate cuts in June. Oil is down 3% on global demand concerns. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman details four reasons why the US dollar has been so strong in recent weeks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

A surging US dollar triggers currency intervention across Asia. Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for even longer. China’s GDP outstrips expectations, but weak domestic demand means further stimulus is expected. NZ inflation data due. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani details what’s at stake for fiscal policy and the rupee in India’s general election, starting on Friday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Treasury yields rose after stronger retail sales data showed consumers are still spending. Oil fell as Middle East conflict fears eased. Dollar/Yen slid through 154 for the first time since 1990. Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down against a stronger USD. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga highlights the quiet achievements of Japan as it emerges from a period of shrinkanomics and the lessons it can teach others with declining populations. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are on tenterhooks to see how Israel reacts to Iran’s weekend attacks. The US dollar is strong, while the Aussie and Kiwi dollars begin the week down. Oil is up. In our bonus deep dive interview currencies, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman is watching the yen and US dollar closely, and sees news from the Middle East limiting any bounces for the Aussie dollar. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The ECB held its policy rate overnight and remains on track to cut in June - before the Fed. China inflation data weaker than expected. Singapore’s GDP figures to include a Taylor Swift effect. Traders are on yen intervention watch. In our bonus deep dive interview on the oil outlook, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says any jump towards US$100/bbl is likely to spark an OPEC supply response. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/